The Bird Breeding Survey has proven to be a valuable source of information on bird population trends. Robbins et al. (1986) provided the first continental relative abundance maps for various songbirds based on BBS data. When viewed at continental or regional scales, these maps provide a reasonably good indication of the relative abundance of species that are well sampled by the BBS.
In addition, the BBS is a good source of information on temporal patterns in trends. Populations of permanent resident and short-distance migrant (birds wintering primarily in the U.S. and Canada) species may be adversely affected by episodes of unseasonal weather. The extent of any declines in a particular bird population is known after the data is analyzed.
The BBS is also a good source of geographic patterns in trends. Few species have consistent trends across their entire ranges, so geographic patterns in trends are of considerable interest to anyone concerned with the status of the continent's birds. With the use of a Geographic Information System, route-specific trends are smoothed to produce geographic patterns that are not based on political boundaries or physiographic strata. These analyses allow identification of regions of increase and decline. Once these regions have been pinpointed, researchers can undertake studies that will allow them to identify the factors responsible for the population trends.
Many patterns occur in geographic coverage of the BBS. Some patterns occur as a consequence of logistics. BBS routes near human population centers tend to be consistently surveyed but remote routes are not surveyed every year, which causes regional variation in the efficiency of the survey (Robbins et al. 1986). Although all States and Provinces vary in coverage over time, some consistent regional patterns occur in BBS coverage. Coverage in the Northeastern United States (excluding ME) is most extensive, with the highest density of BBS routes (up to 16 per degree block of latitude and longitude) occurring in MD, DE, and NJ (See also Table 1). Routes are much less densely distributed elsewhere with maxima of 4-5 routes / degree block in a number of states while NV and portions of some Canadian Provinces have a minimum of 1 route degree block. Route densities are less than 1 route / degree block only in arctic and boreal regions. In Canada, the BBS is largely restricted to the south, and our summary maps truncate the range of each species to indicate the region with sufficient BBS data.
Superimposed on the regional variation in route densities is temporal variation in the number of routes run in many states. Most states show a general pattern of increasing routes over time. In some cases, this pattern is extreme, with states such as ME having few routes until the early 1970's, when numbers started to increase. Some states (e.g., UT) have had consistently low numbers of routes over most of the survey period, while other states (VT, SC, SD) have had periods when the number of routes decreased. For some States and Provinces (e.g., Alaska, Yukon, PEI and NFD), the few years routes were run clearly invalidates any trend analyses from the data.
Efficiency of the BBS Sample
Overall sampling efficiency of the BBS for each bird species by examining sampling attributes over the entire range of the BBS, and categorized them as (1) not sampled by the BBS, (2) small sample-size, (3) highly variable, or (4) low relative abundance. Possession of one of these attributes does not necessarily eliminate the species from trend analyses. These species can be well surveyed by the BBS within portions of their breeding range or during certain time periods. However, long-term regional or survey-wide trend estimates for these species should be used with caution. Numbers presented below were taken from an unpublished manuscript by Sauer and Droege, and use trend data from 1966 - 1990.
The Species not sampled by the BBS-North American bird species that were seen on no more than 1 BBS route fall into broad categories of northern breeders (note that Alaskan BBS routes are not included in standard BBS analyses), tropical or Mexican resident species, pelagic or coastal species, accidental species, and exotics.
Small sample-size species-These species have trend estimates with fewer than 14 degrees of freedom, which means that ([number of routes] - [number of strata within states in which the species occurred] < 14). The 99 species seen on few routes of the BBS fall into several general categories, most of which are related to breeding ranges or habitats of the species. Many northern-breeding species and coastal colonial species are seen on some BBS routes, but must be considered accidental occurrences on the BBS. Many tropical and Mexican species are seen on routes in southern Florida and near the Mexican border. Several species of owls and species with northern ranges are only infrequently recorded on BBS routes.
Although some species listed by or under review for Endangered Species status are occasionally detected on BBS routes, the BBS provides little information of use for evaluating their population status. None of the BBS guilds contain a high proportion of species with extremely low sample sizes, and overall, 20% of all species seen on BBS routes are sampled with < 14 degrees of freedom.
Highly variable species-Eighty-four species had trends with large variances. Several heron species, many duck species, waterbirds, a few species with northern breeding ranges, several warblers, some sparrow species, and some blackbirds occur in this list, among other species. These species can be characterized as birds with specialized habitats or limited distributions in the BBS range, spruce-budworm species, or colonial nesting species. Overall, 22% of the species in the survey were in this category, with hunted species, coniferous forest nesting species, waterfowl, and wetland nesting species guilds having > 22% of their species with high variances.
Low relative abundance species - Ninety-five species had rangewide average counts of < 0.5 birds/route in the BBS. This list has similar species categories as the highly variable and low sample size lists, including the widely distributed nocturnal birds, rails, hawks, ducks, and species whose breeding ranges only partially overlap with regions surveyed by the BBS. Several species that are widely distributed but sampled at low numbers on the BBS occur in this list, such as Wood Ducks, American Woodcock, and Great Horned Owl. Overall, 20 % of the species contained in the BBS data had low relative abundances, and the only guilds with 20 % of species in this category were the hunted and primary cavity nesting guilds.
Overall, 204 (41%) of the 504 species we analyzed for 25-year trends were in at least one of the categories. The guild with the lowest proportion of species in the lists was urban species (8%), while hunted, wetland nesting, and waterfowl guilds had > 41% of their species in 1 of the 3 categories.
Biases in BBS analyses
Other potential biases in the BBS cannot be documented from analysis of the survey. These biases were discussed in the publication (Bystrak 1981, Droege 1990), and we will only mention them here to remind BBS users of the potential problems. They include:
Proportion of range in the survey area-All BBS analyses incorporate data only from BBS routes. Analysis of survey data cannot tell us the proportion of the individuals in a species that breed outside the range of the survey. Species that are recorded only on the margins of the surveyed area are often of low sample size or variable, but many species (e.g., Canada Goose) may have substantial populations within the survey area. Trends are always specific to the areas surveyed.
Roadside biases-The BBS is a roadside survey, and a major criticism of the survey has been that habitat changes along roadsides may not be representative of regional habitat changes. Trends from the BBS may therefore reflect only populations along roads rather than regional bird population changes.
Habitat biases-Within the range of the BBS, many habitats are not well covered, and species that specialize in those habitats are poorly sampled. Wetland birds and species occupying alpine tundra habitats are examples of groups thought to be poorly represented in the survey.
Even with all of the sampling and other biases discussed above, the BBS represents a unique attempt at a survey of breeding populations of birds in North America. Enormous amounts of data have been collected that provide the only information on regional population trends and breeding distributions of birds. The challenge for the future is to maintain and augment survey effort, and to identify and minimize deficiencies in the survey.
Each route consists of 50 3-minute stops 0.5 mile (0.8 km) apart, and is run one morning each year, at the height of the breeding season, starting at 0.5 h before sunrise. In most of the United States coverage is restricted to the month of June, but late May is permissible in the southern States, as is early July in Canada. At each stop the observer stands near his car and records, on prepared forms, the total number of each bird species heard, as well as those seen within 0.25 mile (400 m). Sky condition, wind speed, and temperature are recorded at the beginning and end of each route. Each route is confined to a single degree block and to a single State or Province and, in most instances, to a single major physiographic region.
At the very heart of the route-regression procedure is the analytical procedure used to estimate the trends for individual routes.
Analysis of 2-year population change follows the route-regression analysis described by Link and Sauer (1994) Route-specific change is estimated as the ratio of counts on survey routes that were consistently surveyed over two years. Regional change is estimated as a weighted average of these route estimates, with weights of relative abundance and area of strata-within states. The area weight is used to adjust for regional differences in sample intensity. Variances are estimated through bootstrapping route estimates, and z-tests are used to assess significance of the null hypothesis of no population change for the interval.
Associated Attributes - abundance, relative abundance, counts